Ecuadorians showed strong backing for President Daniel Noboa’s tough security policies in a referendum that tested the government’s popularityefforts to combat criminal groupshave entered a difficult new phase.
The vote, on April 21, was mainly seen as a test of Noboa’s agenda so far as president. Noboa came into office in late 2023 amid unprecedented levels of violence and has since used emergency powers to carry out a militarized crackdown on Ecuador’s criminal gangs. Surveys indicate that most Ecuadorians back the president’s campaign.
The results of the referendum clearly showed that voters approved all nine of the crime and security measures proposed by Noboa.
The outcome of the referendum will lead to changes in Ecuador’s constitution, giving the military a larger role in fighting domestic crime, allowing extradition for the first time, and establishing special courts for handling constitutional rights cases.
Other changes to Ecuadorian law include harsher penalties for criminal offenses, stricter controls on illegal arms possession, and simpler procedures for asset forfeiture.
The constitutional changes will take effect in June after official certification, although some experts believe the government was seeking public support for policies Noboa intended to carry out regardless of the result.
“In reality, the decision has already been made, and [the government] is only seeking popular legitimacy to support that decision,” Pablo Punín, a constitutional and criminal justice expert, told InSight Crime days before the vote.
Below, InSight Crime examines what the referendum could mean for Noboa’s efforts to address Ecuador’s unprecedented security crisis and the country’s battle with organized crime going forward.
Voters Support Militarization
Voters endorsed a change in the country’s constitution allowing the executive branch to deploy the armed forces to combat organized crime – including drug trafficking and money laundering – and to respond to prison riots without first enacting a state of emergency.
The constitutional amendment will make it easier for Noboa to continue relying heavily on the military to address the country’s gangs.
The president took office in November 2023 as Ecuador – long one of Latin America’s most peaceful countries – grappled with unprecedented violence. On January 8, after a particularly shocking surge in criminal violence, he enacted a state of emergency to deploy the military and extended it for 30 days in March.
The military is by far the most popular branch of Ecuador’s security forces and most Ecuadorians credit its presence in the streets and prisons with a significant decrease in homicides under the state of exception.
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But violence has surged since the end of March, with a consistent flow of massacres and political assassinations raising doubts about the long-term effectiveness of militarization. In the days leading up to the referendum, armed groups assassinated two mayors from different provinces in a span of three days. Crimes like demanding money and kidnapping have also increased significantly during this time, despite the presence of the military.
“Here in Guayaquil, the number of murders has decreased, but extortion has not. Between 2023 and 2024, it rose by 400% – even with the state of emergency and military presence,” Andrés Sandoval, general manager of Segura EP, Guayaquil’s municipal security company, stated to InSight Crime. “They’re not affecting criminal businesses. They're not confronting them.”
Human rights organizations have also raised concerns about possible mistreatment of prisoners, including collecting their genetic information without permission, and the military’s excessive use of force during arrests. Since the start of the internal conflict, videos have emerged of military officials humiliating and assaulting unclothed youths for minor offenses such as violating government curfew.
Security officials speaking anonymously to InSight Crime, along with international NGOs, have expressed worry about the large number of arrests made by the military, citing insufficient evidence for some detentions. The armed forces detained nearly 17,000 individuals between January and the end of March. detained The military is taking on police duties, as experts and military officials informed InSight Crime. Many are concerned that increased involvement of the military with criminal gangs could lead to corruption.
Unauthorized disclosure for police work not trained Ecuadorians also approved changes to the constitution that, for the first time, will allow the extradition of Ecuadorian citizens, except for political offenses.
This gives the Ecuadorian government new power over criminal groups, enabling them to remove high-profile criminals from the country entirely – a strategy that could help prevent gang leaders from ordering extreme acts of violence or overseeing criminal operations from behind bars.
However, extradition could have the opposite effect. In recent years, Ecuador’s criminal organizations have responded to high-profile prisoner transfers with extreme violence. This included a surge of attacks after authorities tried to transfer a leader of the gang to a maximum security prison in January. Attempts to extradite gang leaders could provoke a similar, or more severe, reaction, as has occurred in countries like
Legal trials resulting from extraditions could reveal how Ecuador’s drug traffickers operate. The US prosecution of Ecuadorian drug trafficker, Wilder Emilio Sánchez Farfán, also known as “Gato Farfán,” already uncovered connections between
Mexican and Ecuadorian drug trafficking groups. Sánchez Farfán was arrested in Colombia in February 2023 and subsequently sent to the United States. Allowing extraditions also has symbolic significance, according to Dr. Jonathan Rosen, a security professor and author. The US government has already promised nearly $100 million Choneros in aid to Ecuador, and the Ecuadorian government views their future cooperation as crucial to financing the militarized gang war. Colombia, Mexico, and Jamaica.
The government’s inclusion of extradition in the referendum “is signaling to the United States that 'we're doing everything we can to combat crime – help us out,’” he explained to InSight Crime. New Courts, Same Problems Ecuadorians also voted to establish special courts aimed at reducing the ability of organized criminals to control the country’s legal system. The change comes after two consecutive revealed how some members of the country’s criminal elite
exploit constitutional rights to avoid punishment for serious offenses with the help of corrupt judicial officials. The new courts, staffed by judges with specific expertise, will have exclusive authority to decide on constitutional rights, which Noboa hopes will prevent criminals from misusing protections such as the right to a quick trial (
habeas corpus
), a proper defense, and medical treatment as a means of evading justice.
This change could improve the process, leading to more accurate and efficient rulings on legal matters and reducing abuse, according to Punín from InSight Crime. However, due to Ecuador’s
fragile financial situation scandals , there are concerns about the government’s ability to adequately finance these courts. The new courts could also be weakened by the threats
toward judges, who often receive death threats when refusing to accept bribes from criminal groups seeking favorable decisions.“If we can’t even provide security for the judges we have now… or prevent corruption in the existing [judicial] units, how are we going to do it with new ones?” said Punín.Featured image: Ecuadorians voted in a referendum where security issues dominated the ballot. Credit: InSight Crime/Anastasia Austin
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Ecuadorians overwhelmingly showed their support for President Daniel Noboa’s tough security policies in a referendum as the government’s popular “war on gangs” faces a new and challenging phase. […] precarious financial situation, there are concerns about the government’s ability to sufficiently fund such courts.
The new courts could also be undermined by the intimidation of judges, who often receive death threats when refusing to accept bribes from criminal groups seeking favorable rulings.
“If we can’t even provide security for the judges we have now… or prevent corruption in the existing [judicial] units, how are we going to do it with new ones?” said Punín.
Featured image: Ecuadorians voted in a referendum where security issues dominated the ballot. Credit: InSight Crime/Anastasia Austin