Panama’s new President-elect José Raúl Mulino emerged victorious in the election by pledging to bring back Panama's prosperous years. However, dealing with drug trafficking and white-collar crime might be a bigger challenge.
Mulino secured the May 5 presidential election with 34% of the vote, surpassing seven other candidates.
Mulino stated in his victory speech that the people of Panama trusted his proposal because they hoped to improve their situation after the difficulties of the last 10 years. said Mulino was initially the vice presidential candidate for former president Ricardo Martinelli, under whom he served as security minister. However, in March, Panama’s electoral tribunal declared Martinelli ineligible due to his 2023 money laundering case. Consequently, Mulino took his place and, after overcoming a constitutional challenge to his candidacy, was able to participate in the election on May 3, just two days prior to the election. Martinelli, who was the leading candidate when he was disqualified, has been campaigning for Mulino from the Nicaraguan embassy to evade arrest by Panamanian authorities.
During the campaign, the president-elect pledged to implement stringent security measures, root out corruption, and crack down on unauthorized migration across the southern border with Colombia. declared Below, InSight Crime outlines three security challenges facing Mulino when he takes office on July 1. conviction.
Gangs and Prisons permitted Panamanian criminal groups have tried to keep a low profile, but the new administration will encounter challenges related to their growing sophistication, as well as structural issues in the prison system.
Throughout his political career, Mulino has advocated for tough security strategies to combat crime in Panama. Public spending on security increased during his time as security minister, while the homicide rate dropped from 23 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2009 to 15 per 100,000 in 2014.
Homicides have stayed low in Panama compared to the rest of the region, with a rate of 11.5 per 100,000 in 2023, similar to countries like Uruguay and the Dominican Republic.
These low levels of violence are part of a deliberate strategy by Panama’s criminal groups, according to Julio Alonso, a Panamanian security expert.
Gangs like the Two Fingers and New Revolutionary Generation have grown more sophisticated in recent years, expanding their operations to engage in drug trafficking deals outside Panama.
Gangs dominate Panama’s overcrowded and under-resourced prison system, making it a hub for criminal activities and recruitment, rather than a deterrent.mano duraPanama’s prison population has increased by nearly 50% from 2012 to 2024, according to the country’s prisons director. skyrocketedabout 566 per 100,000 dropped population in 2024, surpassing other countries dealing with penal crises like Paraguay (
) and Ecuador ( ). Panamanian prisoners often live in terrible conditions, with the population prisons’ capacity by 63%.
The government
the construction of a new $86 million prison in January with hopes of reducing overcrowding in other facilities. But Mulino has already promised to prioritize a variety of expensive infrastructure projects like trains and bridges, so it’s unclear whether he’ll have the money or determination to overhaul the prison system.
Calor Calor and BagdadWhite-Collar Crime
Mulino’s relationship with former president Martinelli implies he may change direction on recent efforts to strengthen Panama’s fight against money laundering and corruption.
Panama Became Logistics Hub for Drug Trafficking ‘Super Cartel’
Panamanians consider corruption as the country’s biggest problem, even more than insecurity and inequality,
to a recent survey. All eight candidates, including Mulino, pledged to start corruption crackdowns once in office. according However, Mulino is not known as a strong anti-corruption enforcer. He has maintained a close relationship with Martinelli, who the United States has for “involvement in significant corruption” for his association with an of scandals. Mulino himself was imprisoned for embezzlement in 2015 before being released six months later after procedural errors voided the case against him.194“It is very, very hard for there to be a different or more positive environment in the fight against corruption because of the history that these characters bring,” Carlos Barsallo, a lawyer and former president of Transparency International Panama, told InSight Crime.176Panama has made significant improvements to money laundering rules since the infamous 2016 exceeding Panama Papers
scandal, a massive leak of financial documents detailing large-scale money laundering through Panama. announced The country now has a beneficial ownership
, which makes it harder for corrupt actors and criminals to set up shell companies to launder money. In March, the European Union
Panama from its list of high-risk countries for money laundering, citing its “strengthened legal and regulatory framework” to combat the criminal economy.
But laws are only one side of the coin. Corruption, a lethargic judicial system, and a general lack of willpower have all inhibited effective implementation of new rules. Trials for the Panama Papers, for example, are just now underway, eight years after the case broke. according “It is good to have the laws, but that is just the start of a long process,” Barsallo told InSight Crime.
Human Smuggling designated Record numbers of migrants crossing the Darién Gap, a stretch of jungle straddling the Panama-Colombia border, have fueled organized crime in both countries. array The situation on the Panamanian side of the border is chaotic. Small groups, consisting primarily of locals, rob, kidnap, and perpetrate sexual violence against migrants.
In response to the issue, Mulino has campaigned on “closing” the Darién Gap. “Migrants have to understand that Panama is not a transit country,” he
during a recent visit to the region. But efforts to close the border do not address the root problems of migration through Panama, said Juan Pappier, deputy director of the Americas program at Human Rights Watch. “Making it even more difficult for people to cross the Darién Gap will lead many to take even riskier routes and Panama will have less control over the situation,” he said.
The absence of a controlling authority on the Panamanian side also brings the risk that the Gaitanistas (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – registry), a group that removed the Colombian side of the border, could try to
their influence in Panama.
Feature image: President-elect José Raúl Mulino with former president Ricardo Martinelli during the presidential campaign. Credit: Martin Bernetti, AFP
Panama’s new President-elect José Raúl Mulino has won election by promising to return Panama to its economic boom years. But tackling drug trafficking and white-collar crime could prove a bigger challenge.
Mulino won the May 5 presidential election with 34% of the vote, beating out seven other candidates.
The situation on the Panamanian side of the border is chaotic. Small groups, consisting primarily of locals, rob, kidnap, and perpetrate sexual violence against migrants.
In response to the issue, Mulino has campaigned on “closing” the Darién Gap. “Migrants have to understand that Panama is not a transit country,” he said during a recent visit to the region.
Gaitanistas License Migrant Smuggling in Colombian Darién Gap: Report
But efforts to close the border do not address the root problems of migration through Panama, said Juan Pappier, deputy director of the Americas program at Human Rights Watch.
“Trying to make crossing the Darién Gap even harder for them will force many to risk their lives in other, more dangerous paths,” he said. “Panama will have even less control over what is happening.”
The lack of a controlling force on the Panamanian side also poses the risk that the Gaitanistas (Autodefensas Gaitanistas de Colombia – AGC), a group that controls the Colombian side of the border, could try to expand their influence in Panama.
Feature image: President-elect José Raúl Mulino with former president Ricardo Martinelli during the presidential campaign. Credit: Martin Bernetti, AFP